بیمه اتكائی و چالش عدم اجرای بیمه اجباری زلزله در ترکیه

بیمه اتكائی و چالش عدم اجرای بیمه اجباری زلزله در ترکیه

بر اساس برآورد شرکت رتبه‌بندی فیچ[1]، پیش‌بینی می‌شود که بیمه‌گران اتکائی حجم عظیمی از زلزله مرز ترکیه و سوریه را جذب نمایند. این درحالی است که این حجم با توجه به چگونگی نفوذ پایین بیمه در این مناطق، ناچیز باشد.

در روز ۱۷ بهمن ۱۴۰۱، دو زلزله قدرتمند با شدت نزدیک به ۷/۵ ریشتر در نزدیکی مناطق جنوب شرقی ترکیه، دو شهر مهم گازیانستپ و کارامانماراس را لرزاند. این زلزله‌ها، هزاران ساختمان را ویران و هزاران نفر را بی‌خانمان رها کرد.

براساس گزارش اخیر سازمان مدیریت حوادث غیرمترقبه ترکیه (AFAD)[2]، طی ساعات اولیه این زلزله، درحدود ۹ هزار نفر کشته و ۵۰ هزار نفر نیز در استان‌های مختلف این مناطق زخمی شدند.

در یادداشت فیچ آمده است که تخمین خسارات اقتصادی در این شرایط با توجه به تحولات میدانی بسیار سخت است. اما به نظر می‌رسد که به بیش از دو میلیارد دلار برسد و شاید هم به طور بالقوه تا ۴ میلیارد دلار و بیشتر نیز صعود کند.

اما این شرکت رتبه‌بندی پیش‌بینی کرد که خسارات بیمه‌شده، بسیار ناچیز و شاید درحدود یک میلیارد دلار باشد، زیرا پوشش بیمه در مناطق آسیب‌دیده بسیار پایین است. بیشتر خسارات بیمه‌شده، توسط بیمه اتکائی پوشش داده خواهد شد، اما میزان واگذاری‌شده آن در شرایط بازار بیمه اتکائی جهان، ناچیز است و هیچ پیامدی نیز برای رتبه‌بندی بیمه‌گران اتکائی درپی نخواهد داشت. پوشش بیمه در بیشتر مناطق آسیب‌دیده ترکیه و سوریه، پایین است.

صندوق بیمه حوادث ترکیه (TCIP)[3] پس از زلزله ازمیت در سال ۱۹۹۹، راه‌اندازی شد که مسئولیت پوشش زیان‌های زلزله به ساختمان‌های مسکونی در مناطق شهری ترکیه را دارد. اما این صندوق، خسارات انسانی، خسارات بیمه مسئولیت یا خسارات غیرمستقیم مانند وقفه در کسب و کار[4] را پوشش نمی‌دهد.

علاوه بر این، پوشش بیمه زلزله، از لحاظ فنی در ترکیه اجباری است، اما اغلب و درعمل اجرا نمی‌شود. درنتیجه این موضوع، بسیاری از اموال مسکونی، به ویژه در مناطق آسیب‌دیده که درآمد خانوارها در آنها کم است، بیمه نشده‌اند.

صندوق بیمه حوادث ترکیه (TCIP) تاحدزیادی بیمه اتکائی شده است. فیچ تخمین می‌زند، با توجه به تمدید قراردادهای بدون تغییر با یک مازاد ۳۰۰ میلیون دلاری، قراردادهای بیمه‌ اتکائی تنها برای تقریبا دو میلیارد دلار حفاظت ارائه کنند.

علاوه بر این، بیمه‌گران محلی و بین‌المللی که بیمه‌ اموال و وقفه در کسب و کار به مشتریان صنعتی در منطقه ارائه می‌کنند، باید به مطالباتی از جمله موارد مربوط به کارخانه‌ها، زیرساخت‌ها از جمله فرودگاه و بندرها رسیدگی کنند. فیچ اضافه می‌کند که این پوشش‌ها نیز تاحدزیادی تحت پوشش اتکائی قرار دارند.

در نهایت فیچ پیش‌بینی می‌کند که اوراق حوادث فاجعه‌بار، تحت الشعاع شرایط فعلی در ترکیه قرار نگیرند، چراکه ریسک زلزله‌ای که آنها در منطقه پوشش می‌دهند، محدود به منطقه استانبول است.

شرکت ای.ام.بست نیز اخیرا گزارشی را منتشر نمود که نشان می‌دهد که دو زلزله مهیب بر شرایط عملیاتی پرچالش بیمه‌گران و بیمه‌گران اتکائی این کشور افزوده است.


[1] Fitch Ratings

[2] Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency

[3] Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool

[4] Business interruption

261 دیدگاه‌ها

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